000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Sun Nov 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico currently supports minimal gale force northerly winds over the Tehuantepec region, with seas near 16 ft. The ridge will weaken gradually tonight into Sunday as associated high pressure shifts eastward into the SE United States. This will loosen the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region, with winds gradually diminishing below gale force by late Sun. Winds will further diminish to 20 kt or less by Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Mon night. The front will reach The SW Gulf Tue night. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico. This will once again tighten the pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region and usher in another Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event Tue night into Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 05N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 09N between 92W and 98W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 04N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted. The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 04N to 14N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N91W to 10N110W to 08.5N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to 08N135W. It resumes from 08N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted over forecast waters from 05N to 09N E of 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 86W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 105W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details about the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds, and seas generally under 6 ft. Little change is expected through Tue. Winds will briefly strengthen off the coast of Mexico from Sinaloa to Jalisco Mon and Tue. Over the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail through the remainder of this weekend with mainly variable winds afterwards. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon night. Farther south, mainly gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pres near 35N129W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate to fresh NE trades N of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas reaching near 9 ft prevail N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W prevail in a mix of NE wind waves and NW swell. These seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by the middle of next week. A cold front will reach the far NW waters Mon night. Seas behind the front will briefly build to 8 ft across the far NW corner on Tue before subsiding. A large set of NW swell is forecast to enter the NW waters late next week. $$ AL