000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds 
across Tehuantepec will peak near 40 kt overnight and Sat, with 
maximum seas building to 16-17 ft. Winds will decrease below 
gale force on Sun as the gradient weakens, then continue to 
diminish through Mon. Looking ahead, another Tehuantepec gale 
force wind event is forecast Tue night into Wed. See the latest 
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

the axis of a tropical wave is near 90W N of 05N, moving W at 
around 15 kt. Minimal deep convection is associated with the 
wave at present.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 04N to 15N, moving 
W at 10 to 15 kt. Minimal deep convection is associated with the 
wave at present.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 133W from 04N to 14N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
09N to 11N between 133W and 135W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N118W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N125W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 82W to the coast of 
Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
within 30 to 45 nm of the trough axis between 88W and 116W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N 
to 11N between 126W and 131W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features for details about the ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, a ridge 
dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, 
supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds, and seas 
generally under 6 ft. Little change is expected through Tue.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh 
to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region 
through Mon night. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW 
monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters 
of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pres near 34N129W to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE trades N of the ITCZ. No cold fronts are 
expected to reach the area during the next three or four days, 
and no significant long-period swell events are expected to 
impact the forecast region as well. Seas will briefly build to 8 
ft across the far NW corner on Tue.

$$
Mundell