000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1330 UTC Fri Nov 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico currently supports minimal gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region with seas up to 12 ft. Winds are forecast to further increase to 30-40 kt tonight, with seas building up to 16 or 17 ft. Winds will decrease below gale force on Sun as the gradient weakens, then continue to diminish through Mon. Looking ahead. the next Tehuantepec gale force wind event is forecast Tue night into Wed. Please, see latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... the axis of a tropical wave is 1long 83W N of 05N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. this wave is helping to induce convection over parts of western Panama and Costa Rica, but mainly across the Atlantic coasts. An area of disturbed weather is associated with a tropical wave with axis along 119W from 04N to 15N. This system is moving west around. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 08N to 11N between 119W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere from 07N to 18N between 114W and 120W. Upper level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for the development of this system over the next couple of days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 129W from 05N to 15N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 11N between 129W and 133W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 04N to 15N, moving west around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is observed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N75W to 08N90W to 09N110W. The ITCZ continues from 09N110W to 11N120W to 09N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, and from 05N to 07N between 79W and 81W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details about a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas generally under 6 ft. Little change is expected through Tue. Winds will freshen across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California through this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region through Mon night. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pres near 34N128W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades N of the ITCZ. No cold fronts are expected to reach the area during the next three or four days, and no significant long-period swell events are expected to impact the forecast region as well. Seas will briefly build to 8 ft across the far NW corner on Tue. $$ GR