000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: High pres building behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico today will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are expected to increase to minimal gale force this evening, and peak at around 40 kt early Sat. Winds will decrease below gale force on Sun as the gradient weakens, then continue to diminish through Mon morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 04N to 15N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 19N between 114W and 122W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 128W from 05N to 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is observed. The axis of a tropical wave is near 138W from 04N to 15N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is observed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N107W to 10N113W. The ITCZ extends from 10N113W to 11N117W to 09N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 97W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 129W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details about a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the Pacific waters will support gentle to locally moderate N winds across northern offshore waters through Tue. Winds will freshen across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California through Fri evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region through Mon night. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pres near 34N128W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades N of the ITCZ. A tropical wave near 118W is interacting with an upper level trough, producing widespread cloudiness and shower activity. The area of clouds and showers associated with the wave will continue westward for the next day or so. No cold fronts are expected to reach the area during the next five days, and no significant long-period swell events are expected to impact the area as well. $$ Mundell