388 AXPZ20 KNHC 072111 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2015 UTC Thu Nov 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehunatepec gale warning: A cold front will move into the N Gulf of Mexico tonight, reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico on Fri. High pressure will build across eastern Mexico in the wake of the front. This will help tighten the pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the equatorial trough in the eastern North Pacific, which will increase winds currently funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong N winds currently blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today are expected to increase to minimal gale force late Fri afternoon. The area of high pressure will shift eastward through the weekend. This will loosen the pressure gradient on Sun, and veer winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico, helping to diminish winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to fall just below gale force Sun morning, and then gradually diminish Sun through Mon morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 03N to 14N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 18N between 110W and 122W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 05N to 16N, moving west around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is observed. The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 05N to 15N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is observed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N87W to 08N92W. The ITCZ extends from 08N92W to 08N99W to 10N115W. It resumes from 10N116W to 11N124W. It resumes from 10N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 98W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 18N between 110W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 11N between 113W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Feature above for details about the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the Pacific waters will support gentle to locally moderate N winds across the northern offshore waters through at least Tue. Winds will freshen across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California this evening through Fri evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region through Mon night, pulsing to strong winds tonight and Fri night. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through early next week. Moderate S swell will move across the equator today to the east of 95W and raise seas across the waters between the Galapagos Islands and South America late today through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pres near 34N129W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade north of the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail. A tropical wave near 116W has a large surface trough associated with it. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave will continue for the next day or so as it interacts with an upper- level trough. No cold fronts are expected to reach the area through at least Tue night. No significant long- period swell is expected to impact the area through at least Tue night. $$ AL