000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071519 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1444 UTC Thu Nov 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehunatepec gale warning: A cold front will move into the N Gulf of Mexico tonight, reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico on Fri. High pressure will build across eastern Mexico in the wake of the front. This will help tighten the pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough in the eastern North Pacific, which will increase winds currently funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong N winds currently blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today are expected to increase to minimal gale force late Fri afternoon. The area of high pressure will shift eastward through the weekend. This will loosen the pressure gradient on Sun, and veer winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico, helping to diminish winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to fall just below gale force Sun morning, and then gradually diminish Sun through Mon morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 115W from 03N to 14N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 110W and 118W. This area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave will continue for the next day or so. This wave a large surface trough associated with it as observed by scatterometer winds last night. A tropical wave is near 125W from 05N to 16N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 122W and 128W and from 12N to 16N between 120W and 122W. This wave has a surface trough associated with it as observed by scatterometer winds last night. A new tropical wave was added near 135W from 05N to 15N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 09N between 133W and 136W. A broad low pressure of 1007 mb is centered at 08N135W, though the wave is primarily noted from 700 mb trough diagnostics. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N81W. The ITCZ extends from 08N81W to 10N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 09N between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 110W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 122W and 128W and from 12N to 16N between 120W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 09N between 133W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Feature above for details about a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the Pacific waters will support gentle to locally moderate N winds across the northern offshore waters through at least Mon. Winds will freshen across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California this evening through Fri evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region through at least Mon night, pulsing to strong winds tonight and Fri night. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through early next week. Moderate S swell will move across the equator today to the east of 95W and raise seas across the waters between the Galapagos Islands and South America late today through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pres near 35N132W southeastward to near 15N100W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade north of the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail. A tropical wave near 115W has a large surface trough associated with it as observed by scatterometer winds last night. The area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave will continue for the next day or so, as it interacts with an upper-level trough. Combined seas of up to 9 ft with the wave will gradually move westward for the next few days. No cold fronts are expected to reach the area through at least Mon night. No significant long-period swell is expected to impact the area through at least Mon night. $$ Landsea