000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071007 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehunatepec gale warning: A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico Thu night, reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico on Fri. High pressure will build across eastern Mexico in the wake of the front. This will help tighten the pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the equatorial trough in the eastern North Pacific, which will increase winds currently funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong northerly winds currently blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight are expected to increase to minimal gale force late Fri afternoon. The area of high pressure will shift eastward through the weekend. This will loosen the pressure gradient on Sun, and veer winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico, helping to diminish winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to fall just below gale force Sun morning, and then gradually diminish Sun through Mon morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ in the vicinity of this wave between 95W and 100W. A tropical wave is along 114W from 03N to 15N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 112W and 118W. A tropical wave is along 123W from 05N to 18N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 120W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 09N86W TO 07.5N91W. The ITCZ extends from 07N92W TO 08N106W TO 11N113W, then resumes from 09.5N117W TO 10N124W, then resumes from 10N126W to low pres near 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N TO 09N between 130W AND 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning, pulsing to just below gale force each night. The next strong cold front expected across the western Gulf of Mexico on Fri will induce gale force winds across Tehuantepec late Fri through Sat night before fading below gale force Sun morning. High pressure dominating the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward Sun and Mon, producing a steady decrease in winds across Tehuantepec during that time. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the Pacific waters will support gentle to locally moderate N winds across the northern Pacific offshore waters through at least Mon. As the cold front sweeps southward across the Gulf of Mexico late Thu through Fri, winds across the central and southern Gulf of California will briefly freshen to 15-20 kt Thu evening through Fri evening, with seas building to 5-6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region through at least Mon night, pulsing to strong winds each night. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. Moderate southerly swell will move across the equator today to the east of 95W and raise seas to 6-7 ft across the waters between the Galapagos Islands and South America late Thu through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from high pres near 38N132W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade north of the ITCZ to about 23N. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail. The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W. A broad trough in association with this wave and another wave behind it along 114W is expected to produce locally strong E to SE winds and seas around 8 ft across NE portions of this broad inverted trough as the system moves westward during the next couple of days. No cold fronts are expected to reach the area through Mon. Combined seas up to 9 ft in mixed swell will prevail from generally 10N to 22N west of 120W overnight and then shift to west of 135W Fri night. No other significant long-period swell is expected to impact the area through at least Sun night. $$ Stripling