000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070304
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0300 UTC Thu Nov 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehunatepec gale warning: A cold front will move into the
northern Gulf of Mexico Thu night, reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico
Fri. High pressure will build across eastern Mexico in the wake 
of the front. This will help tighten the pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the 
equatorial trough in the eastern North Pacific, which will 
increase winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Winds are expected to increase to minimal gale 
force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri afternoon. The area of
high pressure will shift eastward through the weekend. This will
loosen the pressure gradient, and veer winds over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, helping to diminish winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to 
fall below gale force Sun morning. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is associated
with this wave. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W from 03N to 13N, moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted 
from 09N to 11N between 106W and 112W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 05N to 18N, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted from 12N to 20N between 114W and 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N92W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N94W to 08N105W. It resumes from 07N111W to 
09N122W. Then resumes from 10N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 09N between 94W
and 100W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 09N to 11N
between 106W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 12N to 20N between 114W and 120W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 10N between
120W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120
nm S of the ITCZ between 126W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support strong N gap 
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning, pulsing
to just below gale force each night. The next strong cold front 
expected across the western Gulf of Mexico on Fri will induce 
gale force winds across Tehuantepec late Fri through Sat night 
before fading Sun morning. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient 
across the Pacific waters will support gentle to locally moderate
N winds across the northern offshore waters and the Gulf of 
California through at least Mon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong high pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support 
fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region through at least 
Mon night, pulsing to strong winds each night. Farther south, 
gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the 
offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and 
Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. No significant long-period 
swell will affect the area for at least the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends from high pres near 38N132W southeastward
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE trade north of the ITCZ. South of
the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail. The axis of a 
tropical wave is near 123W from 05N to 18N. A broad trough in 
association with the wave is expected to produce locally strong E
to SE winds and seas around 8 ft across NE portions of this wave
as the system moves slowly westward during the next couple of 
days. No cold fronts are expected to reach the area through Mon. 
Combined seas up to 9 ft in mixed swell will prevail from 
generally 10N to 20N west of 130W overnight and then shift to 
west of 135W Thu night. No other significant long- period swell 
is expected to impact the area through at least Sun night.

$$
AL