000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1436 UTC Wed Nov 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is associated with this wave. This wave is only detectable in the 700 mb tropical trough diagnostics. A tropical wave is near 106W from 03N to 13N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the wave is located from 07N to 10N between 104W and 110W. An overnight scatterometer pass showed a distinct trough in the surface winds due to the wave. A tropical wave is near 121W from 05N to 18N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 115W and 121W. Active convection is expected to continue through Thu. A well-pronounced surface trough was observed last night in association with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N94W, where it transitions to the ITCZ extending to 08N115W. The ITCZ begins again near 07N108W to 08N120W. After another break, the ITCZ extends from 10N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the wave is located from 07N to 10N between 104W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 125W to 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the Pacific waters will continue to support gentle to locally moderate N winds across the northern offshore waters and the Gulf of California through at least Sun. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will promote strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning, pulsing to just below gale force each night. The next strong cold front expected across the western Gulf of Mexico on Fri will induce gale force winds across Tehuantepec late Fri through Sat night before fading Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region through at least Sun night, pulsing to strong winds each night. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. No significant long-period swell will affect the area for at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 30N130W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade north of the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail. A tropical wave is near 121W from 05N to 18N. A broad trough in association with the wave is expected to produce locally strong E to SE winds and seas around 8 ft across NE portions of this wave as the system moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. No cold fronts are expected to reach the area through Sun. Combined seas up to 9 ft in mixed swell will prevail from generally 10N to 20N west of 130W overnight and then shift to west of 135W Thu night. No other significant long-period swell is expected to impact the area through at least Sun night. $$ Landsea