000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051021 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W from 03N to 14N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 09.5N between 97W AND 106W. A broad tropical wave cover the area from 114W to 117W from 06N to 18N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 17.5N between 111W and 123W. Low pres may develop across the NE portion of this wave during the next couple of days and is likely to produce strong E to SE winds and seas around 8 ft as the wave shifts westward. A tropical wave is located along 136W from 03N to 12N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 10N W of 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 08N97W to 07.5N105W to 12N116W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 07.5n E of 81W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 127W and 138W. See the Tropical Waves section for additional information on related convection. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Weakening high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico has allowed for northerly gap winds to diminish to 20 to 25 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Downstream seas have also subsided to 7-9 ft. Broad high pressure is expected to dominate the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the week to maintain strong gap winds across Tehuantepec, with winds increasing to around 30 kt each of the next few nights. Another strong cold front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico early Fri and move southward along the Mexican coastline. Associated building high pressure will force another gale event across Tehuantepec late Fri afternoon through Sat. Gulf of California: A weak pressure gradient over the region will continue to support variable light to gentle winds across most of the Gulf of California, with seas generally 1-2 ft, except to 3 ft across the mouth of the Gulf. A strong ridge will build well north of the area late Thu, to produce an increase in northerly winds to moderate to fresh across the central and southern Gulf waters through Sat night. For the remainder of the area, light to gentle variable winds will dominate the area waters through the weekend, except for moderate to fresh NE winds near Baja California Sur Thu night through Sat night. Slight seas of 3 to 4 ft will prevail through Thu night before winds and seas increase modestly into the weekend as high pressure strengthens across the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure will move due N of the Caribbean during the week and will support fresh offshore winds across the papagayo region through the week. Winds will increase to strong across and downstream of Papagayo region each night, with seas building accordingly to 7 or 8 ft. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. No significant southerly swell events are expected during the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging over the northern forecast waters will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds S of 27N and W of 125W through the week. Moderate seas are expected W of 120W across the regional waters with small to moderate NW swell expected to move through the regional waters late Tue through Wed. High pressure centered over the NE Pacific waters along 135W is producing sufficient pressure gradient between the ITCZ and 20N for fresh easterly trade winds between 130W and 140W, where seas are presently running 7-8 ft. The addition of the approaching swell will raise total sea heights across this zone to 7-9 ft late Tue and Wed. A broad tropical wave along between 113W and 118W will move westward through Thu and tighten the pressure gradient between 14N and 20N to the W of 120W, and will maintain fresh to strong tradewinds W of 120W, and produce seas 7 to 9 ft. Active convection described above is expected to accompany this wave through Wed. $$ Stripling