000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040956 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A broad high pressure ridge across the Gulf of Mexico continues to support minimal northerly gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, where peak seas are to 12 ft. The high will continue to drift eastward overnight across the SE U.S. and weaken slightly across southeastern Mexico. This will allow for winds to diminish to around 30 kt by around sunrise, and then more gradually throughout the afternoon hours. Strong northerly gap winds are then expected to continue across Tehuantepec throughout the week, and will pulse at night to near 30 kt. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the Gale Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W from 03N to 13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring just ahead of the wave from 06N TO 09N between 92W AND 98W. A tropical wave is along 113W from 05N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 15.5N between 104W and 120W. Active weather will accompany this wave for the next 24 hours. A tropical wave is located along 132W from 03N to 13N, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W TO 09.5N86W TO 07N98W TO 12N108W TO 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W TO 07.5N125N TO 08N133W TO beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 08.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. Elsewhere, significant convection is described above with the Tropical Waves Section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting variable light to gentle winds across most of the Gulf of California, with seas of 1-2 ft, except to 3 ft across the mouth of the Gulf. A strong ridge will build over the Great Basin well north of the area by the end of the week, and winds will increase moderate to fresh across the Gulf. For the remainder of the area, a weak high pressure ridge extending SE into the region is generally producing gentle to moderate winds across the regional waters, with slight to moderate seas to 6 ft in mainly NW swell over open waters. Except for locally moderate N to NE winds near Baja California Sur, these conditions are expected to continue through the entire week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure will move N of the Caribbean waters during the week and will support pulses of fresh to strong winds at night in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are expected to build up to 8 ft during the peak winds. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area will maintain a modest pressure gradient north of the tropics and produce moderate to fresh tradewinds W of 115W through the week. Slight to moderate seas are expected across the regional waters as no significant swell is expected through Tue. On Tue, long period NW swell will support seas to 8 ft from 10N to 25N W of 125W. This swell will start decaying by Thu, thus allowing seas to subside on Fri. Otherwise, a tropical wave, currently with axis along 113W will enhance winds to fresh to strong in the region from 10N to 20N between 114W and 140W tonight through Fri. Seas will generally remain near 8 ft in the vicinity of the wave. $$ Stripling