000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 UTC Sat Nov 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: In the wake of a cold front that has now stalled over far southern Mexico, strong high pressure is building southward through Mexico. This is fueling gap force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, peaking near 40 kt. Gale conditions will persist into late Sun, then closer to 35 kt through Sat. Gale conditions will likely continue through Sun, before winds decrease to strong for the start of next week. Seas of up to 17 ft will gradually subside through Sun, and not below 8 ft before early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the Gale Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave off the Colombian coast along 78W. No significant convection is evident. A tropical wave is along 95W, N of 06N northward through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 95W and 100W. A tropical wave extends along 120W, from 05N to 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N100W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends from 09N115W to 07N125W to 10N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is evident from 04N to 08N east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N west of 135W OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over the Great Basin well north of the region continues to support fresh NW to N winds through most of the Gulf of California, with seas 4 to 6 ft. The high pressure is weakening, allowing these conditions to improve with winds diminishing to less than 20 kt and seas subsiding to less than 6 ft by this evening. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes, and slight to moderate seas over open waters. Except for locally moderate NE winds near Baja California Sur, these conditions are expected to continue through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are evident across the region per ship observations and satellite derived data. Offshore winds 10-15 kt prevail across the Papagayo region and will pulse to around 15 to 20 kt each of the next few nights. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build west of 92W off Guatemala Fri through Sat night due to the seas being generated from the gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area will maintain light breezes north of 20N, and moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds south of 20N with slight to moderate seas. $$ Christensen