049 AXPZ20 KNHC 011519 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1456 UTC Fri Nov 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: In the wake of a cold front that has now stalled over far southern Mexico, strong high pressure is building southward through Mexico. This is fueling gap force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, peaking near 45 kt. Gale conditions will persist into the weekend, with winds of up to 45 kt through this evening, then closer to 35 kt through Sat. Gale conditions will likely continue through Sun, before winds decrease to strong for the start of next week. Seas of up to 18 ft will persist today before subsiding some for the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the Gale Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, N of 07N to far southern Mexico, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 88N and 95W. A tropical wave is along 116W, from 06N to 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N77W to low pressure near 09N98W to 08N111W. The ITCZ extends from 08N111W to a tropical wave axis at 07N118W to a trough of low pressure near 11N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 79W and 85W, from 08N to 18N between 98W and 105W, and from 07N to 11N west of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over the Great Basin well north of the region continues to support fresh to strong N to NW winds through most of the Gulf of California. Maximum seas are estimated to be still be 6-8 ft across much of the Gulf, due to the long duration and fetch of the strong winds. The high pressure is weakening, allowing these conditions to improve with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding to less than 7 ft by this evening. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes, and slight to moderate seas over open waters. Except for locally moderate NE winds near Baja California Sur, these conditions are expected to continue through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are evident across the region per ship observations and satellite derived data. Offshore winds 10-15 kt prevail across the Papagayo region and will pulse to around 15 kt each of the next few nights. Farther S, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build W of 92W off Guatemala Fri through Sat night due to the seas being generated from the gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A relatively weak subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain light breezes north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trade winds south of 20N with slight to moderate seas. $$ KONARIK