000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011014 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved across most of the Gulf of Mexico and has begun to stall across southern Mexico this morning. Strong high pressure behind the front is fueling northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec that have recently diminished below Storm force, with peak wind now near 45 kt. This gale wind event is expected to persist through today at 40 to 45 kt and then begin to diminish Fri night into the 35 to 40 kt range. Gale to near gale force winds will then continue through the weekend, pulsing at night to around 35 kt. Seas will build to as high as 18 ft early this morning and then remain around 15 ft through Fri afternoon before subsiding slightly through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the Gale Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W, N of 07N to Guatemala and the southern Yucatan, moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 150 nm either side of the wave. A tropical wave is along 113W, from 05N to 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W TO 08N80W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N97.5W TO 08N111W. The ITCZ extends from 08N111W TO 06.5N119W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N131W TO BEYOND 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 81W and 84W and from 08N to 10N west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning. Cold dry air blasting through the Chivela Pass and across Tehuantepec has races south and southwestward, leaving an arc cloud of shallow to moderate cumulus clouds along 12N. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over the Great Basin well north of the region continues to support fresh to strong N to NW winds through most of the Gulf of California. Maximum seas are estimated to be still be 7-9 ft across much of the Gulf, due to the long duration and fetch of the strong winds. An evening altimeter pass across the Gulf showed a large area of 7-9 ft seas across south portions, but did not sample the area where highest seas near 10 ft were expected to occur. The high pressure is weakening, allowing these conditions to improve with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by Fri afternoon. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes, and slight to moderate seas over open waters. Except for locally moderate NE winds near Baja California Sur, these conditions are expected to continue through early next week. The strong cold front that has moved across most of Mexico has shifted westward across central interior portions and into the higher elevations along the eastern flanks of the Sierra Madre Occidentales. This has forced moisture ahead of the front across the mountains and across coastal portions, where scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms continue this morning. along the coast and offshore out to 150 nm between Puerto Angel and Las Tres Marias. This convection will begin to diminish around sunrise. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are evident across the region per ship observations and satellite derived data. Offshore winds 10-15 kt prevail across the Papagayo region and will pulse to around 15 kt each of the next few nights. Farther S, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build W of 92W off Guatemala Fri through Sat night due to the seas expected to be generated from the gale to storm force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of NE winds 15 to around 20 kt and 8 to 9 ft seas in mixed northerly swell extends from roughly from 07N to 17.5N to the W of 135W. These winds and seas will gradually shift westward and out of the area today. Elsewhere, a relatively weak subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain light breezes north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trade winds south of 20N with slight to moderate seas. $$ Stripling