000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 UTC Fri Nov 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across southern Mexico. Northerly gap winds are reaching storm force currently, and will subside only slightly to strong gales by early Friday, and gales will persist through the entire upcoming weekend. Seas will build to as high as 18-21 ft by early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the Storm Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 89W, N of 07N to Guatemala and Yucatan, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 20N between 107W and 110W. A tropical wave axis is along 1121W, from 05N to 20N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N95W to 10N105W to 09N110W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 08N115W to 1007 mb low pressure at 11N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a Storm Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over the Great Basin well north of the region continues to support fresh to strong N to NW winds through most of the Gulf of California. Maximum seas are estimated to be around 7 ft across much of the Gulf, due to the long duration and fetch of the strong winds. The high pressure is weakening, allowing these conditions to improve with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by early Fri. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes, and slight to moderate seas over open waters. Except for locally moderate NE winds near Baja California Sur, these conditions are expected to continue through early next week. A few showers and thunderstorms are starting to flare off the coast of Oaxaca along the leading edge of the gap winds moving through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This convection is aided in part by decent divergence aloft between and upper anticyclone over central Mexico and a sharp upper trough extending from western Cuba through Guatemala. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Despite the presence of a tropical wave over the area intersecting the monsoon trough, little to no shower or thunderstorm activity is apparent across the region. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are evident across the region per ship observations and satellite derived data. Looking ahead, fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week, mainly at night. Farther S, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build W of 92W off Guatemala Fri through Sat night due to the expected storm force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of 8 to 9 ft seas in mixed northerly swell extends from roughly from 10N to 15N to the W of 135W. These seas will gradually decay through early Fri. Elsewhere, a relatively weak subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain light breezes north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trade winds south of 20N with slight to moderate seas. $$ Christensen