000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2100 UTC Thu Oct 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across southern Mexico. Northerly gap winds will rapidly develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon behind the front, quickly reaching storm force tonight into early Fri. Gale force winds will then persist through the entire upcoming weekend. Seas may build to as high as 18-21 ft by early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the Storm Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 88W, N of 07N to Honduras and Belize, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave axis is along 111W, from 05N to 198N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 08N95W to 10N110W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 09N115W to low pressure at 12N125W to beyond 11N140W. from 08N114W to 09N122W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N E of 83W, from 05N to 12N between 88W and 103W, and from 06N to 10N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a Storm Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over the Great Basin well north of the region continues to support fresh to strong N to NW winds through most of the Gulf of California. The persistent fetch and duration of the NW winds down the length of the GUlf has allowed seas to build to 8 ft. The high pressure is weakening, allowing these conditions to improve with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by early Fri. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes, and slight to moderate seas over open waters. Except for locally moderate NE winds near Baja California Sur, these conditions are expected to continue through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Despite the presence of a tropical wave over the area intersecting the monsoon trough, little to no shower or thunderstorm activity is apparent across the region. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are evident across the region per ship observations and satellite derived data. Looking ahead, fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week, mainly at night. Farther S, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build W of 92W off Guatemala Fri through Sat night due to the expected storm force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of 8 to 9 ft seas in mixed northerly swell extends from roughly from 10N to 15N to the W of 135W. These seas will gradually decay through early Fri. Elsewhere, a relatively weak subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain light breezes north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trade winds south of 20N with slight to moderate seas. $$ Christensen