000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310853 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico and will reach the SW portion later today. Northerly gap winds will rapidly develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon, quickly reaching storm force this evening into early Fri, with gale force then persisting thereafter through the entire upcoming weekend. Seas may build to as high as 18-20 ft by early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the Storm Warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 85W, N of 04N to across Central America and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave axis is along 104W, from 05N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave axis is along 113W, from 04N to 12N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 10N92W to 13N100W. The ITCZ extends from 10N114W to 11N120W to low pressure near 08N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 10N89W to 06N87W to 05N90W to 07N98W to 10N98W to 09N92W to 10N89W, and also within 09N138W to 09N134W to 08N130W to 04N130W to 08N138W to 09N138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a Storm Warning. Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: Yesterday's gale force winds have diminished to fresh to strong as confirmed by recent scatterometer data, while seas are likely still running high at 8 to 12 ft. These conditions will improve with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by early Fri. In addition, fresh to strong NE winds continue to funnel through Baja California passages, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay, N of Punta Eugenia. These winds will diminish later today. Farther S, a trough mainly in the mid levels of the atmosphere, had been responsible for a large cluster of thunderstorms along the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to just S of Cabo Corrientes. This has largely dissipated as the trough is dampening out and shifting W. Locally strong, gusty winds and higher seas are possible over this area of the Pacific waters through the morning. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes, and slight to moderate seas over open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week, mainly at night. Farther S, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build W of 93W off Guatemala Fri through Sat due to the expected gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4 to 7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 7 to 10 ft W of 93W Fri through Sat due to the expected gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of 8 to 9 ft seas in mixed northerly swell extends from roughly from 09N to 21N to the W of 133W. These seas will gradually decay through early Fri. Elsewhere, a relatively weak subtropical ridge N of the area will maintain light breezes N of 20N, and gentle to moderate trade winds S of 20N with slight to moderate seas. $$ Lewitsky