000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0219 UTC Thu Oct 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez Gale Warning: A scatterometer satellite pass from this afternoon confirmed gale force winds follow a cold front moving through the northern Gulf of California. The gale force winds are expected to persist over the northern Gulf of California through late evening, then gradually diminish. Fresh to near gale force NW winds will spread elsewhere across the entire basin by early Thu, and then gradually diminish to fresh winds by late Thu night. Seas are likely to build up to near 12 ft in the basin north of 28N. Winds and sea conditions will improve by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move through portions of Southern Mexico Thu, and gale force northerly gap winds will rapidly develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu afternoon, increasing to near storm by late Thu afternoon into Thu evening. This is expected to be a long lasting event, persisting through Sun night. Seas may build to as high as 18 ft by early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both Gale Warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed over Costa Rica along 84W/85W, N of 04N into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 82W and 84W. A tropical wave axis is along 102W, N of 07N to the coast of Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave axis is along 112W, from 04N to 14N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the 10N85W to 14N98W. Another segment of the monsoon trough reaches from 11N107W to 11N115W. The intertropical convergence zone continues to from 11N115W to 08N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 82W and 84W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning for the northern portion of the basin. Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning. In addition to the gales over the northern Gulf of California, strong to near gale force gap winds are possible through the remainder of this evening and through the overnight periods, off the Pacific side of Baja California Norte, into the Bay of Sebastian Vizcaino, north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, a trough mainly in the mid levels of the atmosphere had been responsible for a large cluster of thunderstorms along the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to just south of Cabo Corrientes. This has largely dissipated as the overall trend is for this activity to weak as the trough dampens out and shifts west. But overnight pulses of showers and thunderstorms may redevelop. Locally strong gusty winds and higher seas are possible over near shore Pacific waters. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes and slight to moderate seas over open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4 to 7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 7 to 10 ft W of 93W Fri through Sat due to the expected gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Earlier altimeter satellite passes confirmed seas approaching 8 ft over the waters roughly from 15N to 20N west of 135W. These seas are largely due to a mix of northeast and northwest swell. These seas will gradually move west of the region through late Thu. Elsewhere, a relatively weak subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain light breezes north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trade winds south of 20N with slight to moderate seas. No significant showers or thunderstorms outside of the few pockets noted along the ITCZ. $$ Christensen