000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302022 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2022 UTC Wed Oct 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez Gale Warning: A cold front is entering the northern portion of the Gulf of California this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient persists behind the strong cold front, expected to sweep southward across the southwestern U.S. and the far northwest section of Mexico. Minimal gale force NW winds are over the northern Gulf of California N of 29.5N and will continue through the evening hours. Fresh to near gale force NW winds will spread elsewhere across the entire basin by early Thu, and then gradually diminish to fresh winds by late Thu night. Seas are likely to build up to near 12 ft in the basin north of 28N. Winds and sea conditions will improve by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move through portions of Southern Mexico later this week, and gale force northerly gap winds will rapidly develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu evening, persisting through Sun night. Winds are forecast to peak around 45 kt Fri, and near storm force winds cannot be entirely ruled out. Seas to 18 ft are expected with this next gap wind event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both Gale Warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed over western Panama along 83W, N of 04N into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 80W and 82W. A tropical wave axis is along 101W, N of 07N to the coast of Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 11N between 95W and 102W. A tropical wave axis is along 111W, from 04N to 14N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo near 10N85W to 08N92W to 12N100W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N107W to another 1010 mb low pressure near 10N121W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N130W. The intertropical convergence zone continues to from 10N130W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 120W and 122W, and from 07N to 10N between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning for the northern portion of the basin. Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning. In addition to the gales over the northern Gulf of California, strong to near gale force gap winds are possible through the remainder of today and through the overnight periods, off the Pacific side of Baja California Norte, into the Bay of Sebastian Vizcaino, north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, a trough mainly in the mid levels of the atmosphere is responsible for a large cluster of thunderstorms along the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to just south of Cabo Corrientes. The overall trend is for this activity to weak as the trough dampens out and shifts west, but overnight pulses of showers and thunderstorms may redevelop. Locally strong gusty winds and higher seas are possible over near shore Pacific waters. For the remainder of the area, a weak pressure pattern is maintaining generally light breezes and slight to moderate seas over open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4 to 7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 7 to 10 ft W of 93W Fri through Sat due to the expected gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm seas approaching 8 ft over the waters roughly from 15N to 20N west of 135W. These seas are largely due to a mix of northeast and northwest swell. These seas will gradually move west of the region through late Thu. Elsewhere, a relatively weak subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain light breezes north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trade winds south of 20N with slight to moderate seas. No significant showers or thunderstorms outside of the few pockets noted along the ITCZ. $$ Christensen