000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is developing early this morning behind a strong cold front will sweep southward across the southwestern U.S. and the far NW section of Mexico. Strong to minimal gale force NW winds will rapidly develop in the next few hours and continue through the evening hours as this occurs, while fresh to near gale force NW winds spread elsewhere across the entire basin by early Thu, and then gradually diminish to fresh winds by late Thu night. Seas are likely to build up to near 12 ft in the basin N of 28N. Winds and sea conditions will improve by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move through portions of Southern Mexico later this week, and gale force northerly gap winds will rapidly develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu evening, persisting through Sun night. Winds are forecast to peak around 45 kt Fri, and near storm force winds cannot be entirely ruled out. Very high seas are expected with this next gap wind event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both Gale Warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is in the vicinity of the Gulf of Panama along 80W, N of 04N to the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. Most of the significant convection is located in the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave axis is along 100W, N of 05N to the coast of Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 45 nm either side of a line from 13N95W to 07N100W. A tropical wave axis is along 109W, from 04N to 14N, moving W at around 10 kt. This wave has detached from 1008 mb low pressure near 10N107W, which is moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 14N108W to 08N105W to 06N115W to 14N108W. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development of this area over the next day or so as it moves slowly WNW. After that time, conditions will become unfavorable for development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo near 10N86W to 15N100W to low pressure near 10N107W to low pressure near 09N121W to low pressure near 09N131W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from that low to 11N137W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 105 nm of the coasts of western Panama and Costa Rica, from 13N to 17N between 104W and 106W, and also from 11N to 13N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning for the northern portion of the basin. Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning. This afternoon through early Thu, the strong winds described above the the Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez section are expected to seep through Baja California Norte passes and bring fresh to locally E and NE winds to the waters N of Punta Eugenia, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. Seas may approach 8 ft as well. These winds will then diminish later Thu. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern will prevail to the W of Baja California from NW to SE with mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds along with wave heights mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4 to 7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 7 to 10 ft W of 93W Fri through Sat due to the expected gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of mixed northerly swell with seas of 8 to 10 ft from roughly 13N to 28N W of 133W was sampled nicely by recent altimeter passes. This swell will gradually decay through Thu night. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail from NW to SE through the next several days, except for a few transient low pressure areas that will come and go along the monsoon trough/ITCZ with little impact. $$ Lewitsky