000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0103 UTC Wed Oct 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will develop overnight. Strong to minimal gale force NW winds expected to develop over the northern Gulf by early Wed and continue through the evening hours as a strong cold front will sweep southward across the southwestern U.S. and the far NW section of Mexico. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to spread across the entire Gulf by early Thu, and then gradually diminish to fresh winds by late Thu night. Seas are likely to build up to near 12 ft in the basin N of 28N. Winds and sea conditions will improve by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 97W, N of 08N to far eastern Mexico, moving W at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 90W and 98W. A tropical wave axis is along 106W from 07N to 13N with a 1008 mb area of low pressure along the wave axis near 11N106W. The wave will detach from the tonight and keep moving westward nearly at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 102W and 112W. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development of this low over the next couple of days as it moves slowly WNW. By late week, conditions will become unfavorable for development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 12N95W to low pressure near 11N106W to 09N125W to low pressure near 11N137W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 05N E of 88W and from 06N to 13N between 121W and 131W. For further information about convection, see the Tropical Waves Section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning for the northern portion of the basin. Gulf of Tehuantepec: As a cold front moves through portions of Southern Mexico later this week, gale force northerly gap winds will develop Thu evening and persist through Sun night. Winds are forecast to peak around 45 kt Fri, and near storm force winds cant be ruled. Very high seas are expected with this next gap wind event. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will prevail to the W of Baja California with mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the middle of the week, along with wave heights mainly in the 4-7 ft range. Wed afternoon through early Thu, the strong winds described above the the Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez section are expected to seep through Baja California Norte passes and bring fresh to locally E and NE winds to the waters N of Punta Eugenia, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. Seas may approach 8 ft as well. These winds will then diminish later Thu. High pressure ridging will then prevail from NW to SE for the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4-7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 6-9 ft W of 93W Fri and Sat due to the expected gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of mixed northerly swell with seas of 8-10 ft continues to propagate southward with the edge of 8 ft or greater currently N of 16N and W of 132W. This swell will continue to propagate southward while gradually decaying through Thu. A weak low pressure center is embedded within the monsoon trough near 11N137. This low will move slowly west and have little convection associated with it. Winds and seas near this low will remain below advisory level. $$ KONARIK