000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will develop across the region by late tonight into early Wed. Strong to minimal gale force NW winds expected to develop over the northern Gulf by early Wed through the evening hours as a strong cold front will sweep southward across the southwestern U.S. and the far NW section of Mexico. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to spread across the entire basin by Thu, and then gradually diminish to fresh winds through early Fri. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 ft in the basin N of 28N. If this occurs, it will be quite unprecedented for this area, although the duration of forecast gale force winds may support such. Winds and sea conditions will improve by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 95W, N of 06N to far eastern Mexico, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 90W and 98W. A tropical wave axis is along 105W from 06N to 15N with a 1008 mb area of low pressure along the wave axis near 10N105W. The wave will detach from the low later today and keep moving westward nearly at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 100W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 103W and 111W. Any development of this area of disturbed weather should be slow to occur while it moves slowly W-NW during the next several days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 10N90W to 12N99W to a low pressure near 10N105W to 10N130W to a low pressure near 11N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 01N E of 81W, and from 10N to 13N between 122W and 126W. For further information about convection, see the Tropical Waves Section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning for the northern portion of the basin. Gulf of Tehuantepec: As a cold front moves through portions of Southern Mexico later this week, gale force northerly gap winds are likely Thu night through at least Mon. Winds are forecast to peak around 45 kt Fri. However, model guidance indicates 925 mb winds of 50-60 kt, which could result in storm conditions. Very large seas are expected with this next gap wind event. Elsewhere, a broad and weak pressure pattern will prevail to the W of Baja California with mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the middle of the week, along with wave heights mainly in the 4-7 ft range. By Wed evening into early Thu, the fresh to strong winds described in the Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez section are forecast to seep through the Baja California Norte passages and across the waters N of Punta Eugenia, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay, with seas building to near 8 ft as well. These winds will then diminish by Thu morning. High pressure ridging will then prevail from NW to SE for the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4-7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 6-9 ft W of 93W Fri through Sat morning due to the expected gale gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of mixed northerly swell with seas of 8-10 ft continues to propagate southward with the edge of 8 ft or greater currently N of 19N and W of 125W. This swell will continue to propagate southward while gradually decaying through Thu. A few weak low pressure areas are embedded within the monsoon trough with any associated convection described above. Associated winds and seas are forecast to remain just below advisory conditions with all of these lows. $$ Ramos