000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez Gale Warning: Moderate to fresh NW flow across the basin will diminish through today with winds backing to SE-S from the northern portion to the southern. Seas of 3-5 ft will subside to 3 ft or less through the afternoon as well. A tight pressure gradient will then develop across the region by late tonight into early Wed. Strong to minimal gale force NW winds expected to develop over the northern Gulf by early Wed through the afternoon in the wake of a strong cold front that will sweep southward across the southwestern U.S. and the far NW section of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to spread across the entire basin by Thu, and likely continue into early Fri. Model guidance also shows a non-zero chance for winds briefly increasing back to minimal gale force late Wed night. Seas are forecast to build to 8-11 ft in the basin W of 110W, with some model guidance even showing 1-2 ft even higher. If this occurs, it will be quite unprecedented for this area, although the duration of forecast gale force winds may support such. Winds and sea conditions will improve by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 94W, N of 05N to far eastern Mexico, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between the wave axis and 97W. A tropical wave axis is along 104W, N of 06N to the coast of SW Mexico, with a 1008 mb area of low pressure along the wave axis near 11N104W. These features are moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 15N103W to 10N101W to 06N106W to 10N113W to 15N103W. Any development of this area of disturbed weather should be slow to occur while it moves slowly W-NW during the next several days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from central Panama near 09N80W to 12N97W to low pressure near 11N104W to low pressure near 09N118W to low pressure near 09N128W to low pressure near 11N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of 80W to the Pacific coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama, with most of this convection associated with a tropical wave currently moving from the central to the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 112W and 115W, from 11N to 13N between 124W and 126W, and also within 90 nm in the NW semicircle of the low near 09N128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning for the northern portion of the basin. Gulf of Tehuantepec: As a cold front moves through portions of Southern Mexico later this week, gale force northerly gap winds are possible Thu night through at least Mon. Winds are forecast to peak around 45 kt Fri, and with model guidance indicating 925 mb winds of 50-60 kt, will need to monitor trends in case storm conditions become possible. Very large seas are expected with this next gap wind event. Elsewhere, a broad and weak pressure pattern will prevail to the W of Baja California with mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the middle of the week, along with wave heights mainly in the 4-7 ft range. By late Wed into early Thu, the fresh to strong winds described in the Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez section are forecast to seep through the Baja California Norte passages and across the waters N of Punta Eugenia, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay, with seas building to near 8 ft as well. These winds will then diminish by Thu night. High pressure ridging will then prevail from NW to SE for the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4-7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 6-9 ft W of 93W Fri and Fri night due to the nearby possible gale gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of mixed northerly swell with seas of 8-11 ft continues to propagate southward with the edge of 8 ft or greater currently N of 20N and W of 127W. This swell will continue to propagate southward while gradually decaying. A few weak low pressure areas are embedded within the monsoon trough with any associated convection described above. Associated winds and seas are forecast to remain just below advisory conditions with all of these lows. $$ Lewitsky