000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: The tail of a cold front is in the far northern portion of the gulf supporting NW strong to near gale force winds N of 29N this morning. Seas will build to around 8 ft near near 30N114W later today as strong winds extend to the central portion of the gulf. The tail of the front will dissipate later today, allowing for winds and seas to diminish tonight. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the region again by early Wed with strong to minimal gale force northwest winds expected to develop over the northern Gulf in the wake of a strong cold front that will sweep southward across the southwestern U.S. and the far NW section of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to spread across the entire basin by Thu, and likely continue into early Fri before diminishing to mainly fresh speeds thereafter. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 102W from 07N-17N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-15N between 97W-109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N92W to low pressure near 11N102W to low pressure near 12N114W to low pressure near 10N127W to low pressure near 11N133W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong N of 05N E of 86W, from 07N to 13N between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection from 12N to 17N between 127W and 133W, and from 11N to 22N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning expected for the northern portion of the gulf. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient across the region has diminished as return flow has started to dominate the southern Gulf of Mexico. Remnant moderate to fresh northerly flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to diminish this afternoon. Looking ahead, model guidance continues to strongly suggest that another gale force northerly gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through Mon, with winds at least up to 40 kt by early Fri. Otherwise, a very broad and weak pressure pattern will prevail to the W of Baja California with mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the middle of the week, along with wave heights mainly in the 4-7 ft range. By late Wed into early Thu, the fresh to strong winds described in the Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez section are forecast to seep through the Baja California Norte passages and across the waters N of Punta Eugenia, with seas building to near 8 ft as well. These winds will then diminish by Thu night. High pressure ridging will then prevail from NW to SE for the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the week. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4-7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 6-9 ft W of 93W Fri and Fri night due to the possible gale event in the nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of fresh northerly swell with seas of 8-10 ft continues to propagate southward with the edge of 8 ft or greater currently along 27N. The seas will reach across the waters N of 25N and W of about 120W by this afternoon, then reaching the waters N of 15N and W of 128W by Tue afternoon, gradually decaying thereafter. A few weak low pressure areas are embedded within the monsoon trough with any associated convection described above. Associated winds and seas are forecast to remain below advisory conditions with all of these lows. $$ NR