000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 110W from 05N-15N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-11N between 106W-111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from central Panama near 09N80W to 13N96W to low pressure near 12N101W to low pressure near 12N117W to low pressure near 11N125W to low pressure near 12N133W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of a line from 12N92W to 08N95W, from 12N to 14N between 96W and 100W, from 06N to 09N between 100W and 103W, from 09N to 13N between 102W and 105W, within 150 nm of the low near 12N133W, and also from 12N to 16N between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 123W and 127W, and also within 105 nm in the E quadrant of the low near 11N125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: A cold front is in the far northern portion from 21.5N113.5W to 31N115W, and a recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong SW winds N of 29N ahead of the front. Winds will become NW-N at fresh to near gale behind the front through the morning and into the afternoon, and there is a non-zero chance of minimal gale force winds for a few hours, although confidence is not high enough to issue a gale warning. Seas will build to around 8 ft near near 30.5N114W later today. The front will dissipate later today as it sags SE. Winds will diminish tonight and seas will subside. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the region again by early Wed with strong to minimal gale force northwest winds expected to develop over the northern Gulf in the wake of a strong cold front that will sweep southward across the southwestern U.S. and the far NW section of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to spread across the entire basin by Thu, and likely continue into early Fri before diminishing to mainly fresh speeds thereafter. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient across the region continues to slacken with remnant fresh to strong northerly flow in the immediate Gulf forecast to diminish in the next few hours, along with seas to 8 ft which will subside. Looking ahead, model guidance continues to strongly suggest that another gale force northerly gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through the end of the week, with winds at least up to 40 kt by early Fri. Otherwise, a very broad and weak pressure pattern will prevail to the W of Baja California with mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the middle of the week, along with wave heights mainly in the 4-7 ft range, except near 8 ft today in the zone W of Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. By late Wed into early Thu, the fresh to strong winds described in the Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez section are forecast to seep through the Baja California Norte passages and across the waters N of Punta Eugenia, with seas building to near 8 ft as well. These winds will then diminish by Thu night. High pressure ridging will then prevail from NW to SE for the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds, will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the week. Nocturnal offshore flow may increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo Fri night. Wave heights are expected to be in the 4-7 ft range across the offshore waters, building to 6-9 ft W of 92W Fri and Fri night due to the possible gale event in the nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A set of fresh northerly swell with seas of 8-11 ft continues to propagate southward with the edge of 8 ft or greater currently along 27N. The seas will reach across the waters N of 25N and W of about 120W by this afternoon, then reaching the waters N of 15N and W of 128W by Tue afternoon, gradually decaying thereafter. A few weak low pressure areas are embedded within the monsoon trough with any associated convection described above. Associated winds and seas are forecast to remain below advisory conditions with all of these lows. $$ Lewitsky