000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure extending S across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico supports the ongoing gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Minimal gale force northerly winds are occurring tonight as measured by a recent ASCAT-C scatterometer pass, with seas likely up to 11-12 ft. The gale force winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong around sunrise, then will diminish to 20 kt or less by early Mon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Looking ahead, another gale force northerly gap wind event may be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thu night into Fri. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 86W N of 10N, moving W at 5-10 kt. This wave extends across northern Central America into the NW Caribbean Sea and is helping to induce scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the coast between 87W and 92W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 106W/107W from 05N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 100W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo near 10N86W to low pressure near 11N101W to 13N115W to low pressure near 10N118W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 90W and 94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 96W and 99W, from 07N to 11N between 110W and 112W, within 120 nm NE of a line from 12N111W to 15N118W, and also from 10N to 12N between 133W and 137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also from 03N to 07N within 120 nm W of the coast of Colombia. This convection developed over inland areas on Sat near the axis of an upper level trough prior to propagating offshore with the low level easterly flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez: Winds have become southerly at gentle to moderate speeds ahead of a trough which extends along the W coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Seas are currently 2 ft or less, except 2-4 ft near the entrance to the basin. The southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong N of 30N later today, then will veer to NW-N behind the trough into the evening while increasing to 20-30 kt behind this feature. Seas will build to up to 8 ft with these stronger northerly winds and fetch, with the winds spreading southward to across the central portion on Mon. Conditions will improve Mon night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the region again by Wed and model guidance indicates the potential for at least strong to near gale force NW winds over the northern Gulf, if not minimal gale force. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are forecast to spill across the entire Gulf by Thu, persisting into early Fri. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through the middle of the week with seas mainly in the 4-7 ft range. By Wed night into early Thu, the fresh to strong winds described in the Gulf of California section are forecast to seep through Baja California Norte passages into the waters N of Punta Eugenia, diminishing by Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh, will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the week. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A speed convergence line is noted along and just N of 30N with fresh to strong NE flow N of the boundary. A set of fresh northerly swell behind this boundary is propagating southward and will build seas to 8-11 ft N of 25N W of 120W by Mon. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 15N and W of 130W on Tue, gradually decaying thereafter. A couple of weak low pressure system are noted along the monsoon trough near 11N101W, and near 10N118W. Both are generating some convective activity as described in the monsoon trough section above. The eastern low is forecast to persist over the next several days while drifts westward. $$ Lewitsky