000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270210 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 005 UTC Sun Oct 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure extending south across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico supports the ongoing gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Minimal gale force northerly winds are occurring tonight with seas of up to 12-13 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to diminish by Sun morning, with fresh to strong northerly winds and seas in the 8-9 ft range persisting through Sun night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 86W N of 08N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave crosses northern Central America and is helping to induce some convective activity. The axis of a tropical wave is along 105W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant convection. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 11N101W to another 1010 mb low pressure situated near 10N118.5W to 09N133W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 101W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 117W and 121W, and from 06N to 11N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds now dominate the Gulf of California based on the most recent scatterometer pass. Winds will begin to veer to the SE and S tonight, particularly across the northern part of the Gulf, increasing to 20-25 kt N of 30N by Sun afternoon as a frontal trough approaches the region from the NW. Winds will then veer to the NW-N with the frontal passage and increase to 20-30 kt by late Sun night into Mon, with fresh to strong winds spreading S to near 29.5N by Mon morning, and to near 26N by Mon afternoon before diminishing to 20 kt or less Mon night. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the region again by Wed with strong to near gale force NW winds over the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are forecast to spill across the entire Gulf by Thu. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through the middle of the upcoming week with seas mainly in the 4-7 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh, will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through early next week. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge remains in place across the northern forecast waters producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. A frontal trough or shear line like feature will be near 30N on Sun followed by a new set of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate SE across the forecast waters building seas to 8-11 ft N of 25N W of 120W on Mon. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 15N and W of 130W on Tue, gradually decaying thereafter. A couple of weak low pressure system are noted along the monsoon trough near 11N101W, and near 10N118.5W. Both are generating some convective activity. The eastern one is forecast to persist over the next several days while drifts westward. $$ GR