000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1934 UTC Sat Oct 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved through the western Gulf of Mexico yesterday has stalled across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Sharp and deep high pressure ridging has surged down the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico with gale force northerly winds now funneling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are forecast to peak near 40 kt during the next few hours and then gradually diminish to minimal gales occurring to the N of 14.5N through tonight. Seas will build to up to 12-14 ft with these strongest winds. Gale force winds will diminish early Sun morning with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Sun night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 104W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted E of the wave axis from 09N to 11.5N between 102W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 11N101W to another 1010 mb low pressure situated near 10N118.5W to 10N135W. The ITCZ extends from 10N135W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 15N between 93W and 100W, from 09N to 11N between 100W and 104W, from 08N to 11N between 117W and 121W, and from 10N to 12N between 130W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds now dominate the Gulf of California based on a recent scatterometer pass. Winds will begin to veer to the SE and S tonight, particularly across the northern part of the Gulf, increasing to 20-25 kt N of 30N by Sun afternoon as a frontal trough approaches the region from the NW. Winds will then veer to the NW-N with the boundary passage and increase to 20-30 kt by Sun night, with fresh to strong winds spreading S to near 29.5N by Mon morning, and to near 26N by Mon afternoon before diminishing to 20 kt or less Mon night. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the region again by Wed with fresh to strong NW winds currently forecast to spill across the entire Gulf. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through the middle of the upcoming week with seas mainly in the 4-7 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh, will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through early next week. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge remains in place across the northern forecast waters producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. A frontal trough or shear line like feature will be near 30N on Sun followed by new set of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate SE across the forecast waters building seas to 8-11 ft N of 25N W of 120W on Mon. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 15N and W of 130W on Tue, gradually decaying thereafter. Elsewhere, a surge in the monsoonal flow, combined with long period southerly swell, is supporting a small area of 8 ft seas roughly from 08N to 10N between 99W and 101W. This area of seas is along the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador. Seas will increase to 8 ft or greater in this region due to the ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. $$ GR