000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front moved through the western Gulf of Mexico yesterday, and is now stalled. Sharp and deep high pressure ridging has surged down the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico with gale force northerly winds now funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are forecast to increase and peak around 40 kt later today. Seas will build to up to 12-14 ft with the strongest winds. Gale force winds will diminish Sun morning with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Sun night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, from 05N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 100W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Costa Rica/ Nicaragua border near 11N86W to low pressure near 10.5N97W to low pressure near 10.5N117W to 10N130W to 10N135W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from near 10N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm SW of Central America between 83W and 87W, within 12N93W to 12N90W to 08N87W to 08N91W to 12N93W, from 08N to 11N between 116W and 126W, and also from 08N to 12N between 128W and 136W. Similar convection is noted N of 14N between 92W and 97W, in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over central Mexico combined with sharp inverted troughing over far NW mainland Mexico and along the eastern Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez is supporting fresh to strong NW-N winds over the central Gulf as measured by a recent scatterometer pass. These winds are diminishing as the gradient is beginning to weaken. By Sun afternoon, winds will become southerly and become fresh to strong N of 30N as a frontal trough approaches the region from the NW. Winds will veer to the NW-N with the boundary passage and increase to 20-30 kt by Sun night, with fresh to strong winds spreading S to near 29.5N by Mon morning, and to near 26N by Mon afternoon before diminishing to 20 kt or less Mon night. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient will develop across the region again by Wed night with fresh to strong NW winds currently forecast to spill across the entire Gulf. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through the middle of the upcoming week with seas mainly in the 4-7 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while a gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through early next week, occasionally pulsing to moderate to fresh. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge will remain in place across the northern forecast waters through the beginning of the weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. A frontal trough or shear line like feature will be near 30N on Sun followed by a new set of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate SE across the forecast waters building seas to 8-11 ft N of 25N W of 120W on Mon. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 15N and W of 130W on Tue, gradually decaying thereafter. Elsewhere, a surge in the monsoonal flow, combined with long period southerly swell, is supporting an area of 8-9 ft seas roughly from 07N to 11N between 95W and 105W. This area of seas is along the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador. Seas will briefly subside to less than 8 ft in this area on Sat but will increase again to 8 ft or greater due to the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. $$ Lewitsky