000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 025 UTC Sat Oct 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. A building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass late tonight into Sat, reaching gale force in the 35 to 40 kt range with seas building to up to 13 or 14 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun morning, with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Sun night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, N of 05N to the coast of Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 100W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1007 mb low pressure located near 11N97W to another 1010 mb low pressure situated near 10N116W to 11N128W. The ITCZ continues from 11N128W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 10N between 87W and 90W, and from 09N to 11N between 90W and 91W. Similar convection is also noted within about 90 nm S semicircle of low pressure located near 11N97W, from 07N to 11N between 116W and 125W, and from 09N to 11N between 128W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure E of the U.S. Rocky Mountains combined with an inverted trough over NW mainland Mexico E of the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to strong NW-N winds over the northern and central Gulf. Latest scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds, forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by Sat morning. By Sun afternoon, winds will become southerly and become fresh to strong N of 30N as a weak cold front approaches the region from the NW. Then, winds will veer to the NW-N with the frontal passage and increase to 20-30 kt by Sun night with these fresh to strong winds spreading S to near 29.5N by Mon morning, and to near 26N by Mon afternoon before diminishing to 20 kt or less Mon night. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Tue with seas in the 4- 6 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while a gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through early next week. An area of moderate to fresh SW winds with seas to 8 ft is near the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge will remain in place across the northern forecast waters through the beginning of the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. A dissipating cold front will be near 30N on Sun followed by a new set of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate SE across the forecast waters building seas to 8-10 ft N of 25N W of 120W on Mon. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 15N and W of 130W on Tue. Otherwise, a surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, is producing an area of 8-9 ft seas roughly from 07N to 11N between 93W and 100W, and from 07N to 10N between 100W and 106W. This area of seas is now approaching the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador. Seas will briefly subside to less than 8 ft in this area on Sat but will increase again to 8 ft or greater due to the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. $$ GR