000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1945 UTC Fri Oct 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will very rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass late tonight between strong and gale force speeds, further increasing slightly into early Sat morning. Winds are expected to peak 35-40 kt, with seas building to up to 12-14 ft with this event. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun morning, with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Sun night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, N of 05N to the coast of Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 100w and 102W. Similar convection is seen near the northern end of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, from 05N to 18N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 111W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N92W to 11N102W to 13N110W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N116W to 11N128W. The ITCZ continues from 11N128W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 10N between 85W and 89W, and from 08N to 11N between 92W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure E of the U.S. Rocky Mountains combined with an inverted trough over NW mainland Mexico E of the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to strong NW-N winds over the northern and central Gulf. The most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds, forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by Sat morning. By Sun afternoon, winds will become southerly and become fresh to strong N of 30N as a weak cold front approaches the region from the NW. Then, winds will veer to the NW-N with the frontal passage and increase to 20-30 kt by Sun night with these fresh to strong winds spreading S to near 29.5N by Mon morning, and to near 26N by Mon afternoon before diminishing to 20 kt or less Mon night. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Tue with seas in the 4- 6 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while a gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through early next week. A set of long period SW swell is currently in the area, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge will remain in place across the northern forecast waters through the beginning of the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. A dissipating cold front will be near 30N on Sun followed by a new set of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate SE across the forecast waters building seas to 8-10 ft N of 25N W of 120W on Mon. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 15N and W of 130W on Tue. Otherwise, a surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, is producing an area of 8-9 ft seas roughly from 05N to 10N between 94W and 106W. This area of seas will propagate slightly NE approaching the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador by tonight. $$ GR