397 AXPZ20 KNHC 251600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to gale force winds will very rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass late tonight. Winds will further increase Sat morning and peak to 40 kt with seas building to up to 12-14 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun morning, with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Sun evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, N of 05N to the coast of Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 98W and 103W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W, from 07N to 17N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 111W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N92W to 09N105W to 12N114W to 10N120W to 11N130W. The ITCZ begins near 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 90W and 98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure N of the area and a sharp inverted trough over far NW mainland Mexico E of the Gulf of California is supporting strong to near gale force NW-N winds N of 26N with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northerly flow is also forecast to filter through the passages in Baja California Norte into the Pacific offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia into the early afternoon today. Winds and seas and seas in the gulf will gradually diminish through Sat morning. By Sun night, the tail of a cold front will move across the northern gulf waters and fresh to strong northerly winds will resume N of 27N, continuing through the evening hours. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Tue with seas in the 4- 6 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while a gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through early next week. A set of long period SW swell is in the area this morning, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge will remain in place across the northern forecast waters through the beginning of the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. A decaying cold front will attempt to breach S of 32N by Sun with little success. However, associated large NW swell of 8-10 ft will manage to spread southward. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will reach 15N and W of 125W through Tue and then will gradually subside. Otherwise, a surge in the monsoon flow, combined with SW swell, is producing an area of 8-9 ft seas roughly from 05N to 09N between 97W and 105W. This area of seas will propagate slightly NE approaching the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador by tonight before subsiding. $$ Ramos