000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250903 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will very rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass late tonight between strong and gale force speeds, further increasing slightly into early Sat morning. Winds are expected to peak 35-40 kt, with seas building to up to 12-14 ft with this event. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun morning, with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Sun night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, N of 05N to the coast of Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 94W and 104W, attributed to the tropical wave and the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W, from 04N to 18N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10.5N to 11.5N between 111W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N80W to 10N86W to 11N93W to 10N100W to 08N105W to low pressure near 11N116W to 10N129W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 10N129W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 83W and 90W, and within 150 nm in the NE quadrant of the low pressure area near 11N116W. Similar convection is noted within 75 nm of the coast of Mexico between the Guatemala border and the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 96W, to the E of an upper level trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure E of the U.S. Rocky Mountains and sharp inverted troughing over far NW mainland Mexico E of the Gulf of California is supporting increasing NW-N winds of fresh to strong N of 23N. Seas will build to up to 8 ft later this morning with these winds. Winds and seas will diminish by Sat morning. By Sun afternoon, winds will become southerly and become fresh to strong N of 29N as a decaying cold front approaches the region from the NW. Winds will veer to the NW-N behind the old front Sun night with these fresh to strong winds behind the front spreading S to 27N through Mon afternoon before diminishing Mon night. The fresh to strong northerly flow is also forecast to filter through the passages in Baja California Norte into the Pacific offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia into the early afternoon. Otherwise, a weak ridge W of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4-6 ft range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while a gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend. A set of long period SW swell will reach the area this morning, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge will remain in place across the northern forecast waters through the beginning of the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. A decaying cold front will attempt to breach S of 32N by Sun with little success, however, associated large NW-N swell of 8-11 ft will manage to spread southward. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will reach 15N and W of 125W through the early part of next week. Otherwise, a surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, is producing an area of 8-9 ft seas roughly from 03N to 08N between 97W and 109W. This area of seas will propagate slightly NE approaching the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador by tonight. $$ Lewitsky