829 AXPZ20 KNHC 250221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 026 UTC Fri Oct 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late Fri night, increasing to gale force by early Sat morning. Winds are expected to peak 35-40 kt, with seas building to up to 12 or 13 ft with this event. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun morning, with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Sun night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of 06N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 06N to 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 09N84W to 12N94W to 10N106W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N116W to 10N130W. The ITCZ begins near 10N130W and continues along 09N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 84W and 87W, and from 08N to 10N between 95W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge west of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over the Great Basin is bringing an increase in winds and seas across the northern and central Gulf. Expect winds of 20-30 kt and seas of 8-9 ft N of 29.5N tonight and Fri. Fresh to strong winds in the 20-25 kt range and seas to 8 ft will also affect the central Gulf on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat morning. Strong winds are expected again across the northern Gulf late Sun night and Mon as another strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin. Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the central Gulf Mon and Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please see the Special Features Section for details on the next gap wind event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while a gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend. A set of long period SW swell will reach the area on Fri, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will remain in place across the northern forecast waters through the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. A new set of long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW corner of the forecast area by Sun night, and propagate SE across the waters W of 120W through Tue. Building seas of 8-10 ft are expected N of 20N W of 125W by Mon night. Otherwise, a surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, is producing an area of 8 ft seas roughly from 02N to 08N between 96W and 108W. This area of 8 ft seas will propagate northeastward approaching the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador by Fri night. $$ GR