000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1955 UTC Thu Oct 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late Fri night, increasing to gale force by early Sat morning. Winds are expected to peak 35-40 kt, with seas building to up to 12 or 13 ft with this event. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun morning, with fresh to strong northerly winds persisting through Tue. Of note: Climatology indicates that on average 11.9 gale-force events and 6.3 storm-force events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold season. About 84 percent of these events occur between November and March, with the largest number of gale-force events occurring in December. Storm-force events are most frequent in January. Gale-force events have occurred as early as September and as late as May. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W north of 06N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 13N to the coast of Mexico between 94W and 101W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 06N to 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 18N between 106W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 09N84W to 11N98W to 10N110W to 1011 mb low pressure located near 12N116W to 10N130W. The ITCZ begins near 10N130W and continues along 09N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 83W and 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge west of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure over the Great Basin is bringing an increase in winds and seas across the northern and central Gulf. Expect winds of 20-30 kt and seas of 8-9 ft N of 29.5N Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong winds in the 20-25 kt range and seas to 8 ft will also affect the central gulf on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please see the Special Features Section for details on the next gap wind event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while mainly gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend. A set of long period SW swell will reach the area on Fri, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge prevails across the northern waters north of 20N west of 120W supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. The ridge will remain nearly stationary, but will gradually weaken through Fri, thus allowing trade winds to further diminish. Otherwise, a surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, is producing an area of 8 ft seas roughly from 02N to 07N between 97W and 110W. This area of 8 ft seas will propagate northeastward reaching the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters between the Tehuantepec region and El Salvador by Fri night. $$ GR