000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING... A strong ridge building east of the Sierra Madre mountains behind a cold front will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late Fri night, then increase to gale force by early Sat morning. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft, with 8 ft seas extending well downstream of the Gulf. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by late Sat night. A reinforcing cold front will support a second gap wind event Mon night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W north of 07N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 17N between 91W and 101W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 05N to 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 08N78W to 11N96W to 09N105W to 13N117W to 10N130W. The ITCZ begins near 10N130W and continues along 08N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N E of 86W. For more information on convection, see the tropical waves section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with seas in the 4-6 ft range. These conditions are expected to prevail through Mon as a high pressure ridge west of the region weakens and shift westward over the next couple days. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure building over the Great Basin today into Fri will tighten the pressure gradient in the region. This will result in strong northerly winds over the northern and central Gulf this afternoon through early Sat with seas to 9 ft. However, strong to near gale force NW to N winds are likely north of 29.5N Sat morning. Looking ahead, another strong northerly wind event is expected over the northern and central Gulf Sun night through Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please see the Special Features Section for details on a strong gap wind event happening late Fri through early Sun. Past the weekend, the next gap wind event is likely to occur Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle winds will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador for the next several days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the weekend and into early next week. Long period SW swell will continue impacting the region through the weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge prevails across the northern waters north of 20N west of 125W supporting mainly moderate NE to E winds across the region with seas in the range of 8-9 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. The ridge will remain nearly stationary, but will gradually weaken through Fri, thus allowing trade winds to further diminish. Otherwise, a surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, could produce another area of 8 ft seas roughly from 06N to 09N between 96W and 104W on Fri. This area of 8 ft seas will propagate northeastward while subsiding by Fri night. $$ Ramos