000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Thu Oct 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W south of 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 94W and 98W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W south of 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N within 90 nm east of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N84W to 12N96W to 10N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N117W to 11N128W. The ITCZ begins near 11N128W and continues to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 79W and 86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between 88W and 93W, and within 150 nm NE quadrant of the low. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data shows gentle NW breezes across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are running 4-6 ft south of Cabo San Lucas per earlier altimeter data. A high pressure ridge west of the region will weaken and shift westward over the next couple days. This will shift winds to NE across the Baja California Norte waters by tonight, while light and variable winds prevail elsewhere. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure is expected to build over the Great Basin Thu into Fri, and the resulting pressure gradient will increase northerly winds over the northern and central Gulf. Expect strong to near gale force NW to N winds with seas building to 8-9 ft north of 29.5N Thu through Fri, while fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will affect the central Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat morning. Looking ahead, another strong northerly wind event is expected over the northern and central Gulf Sun night through Mon night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Earlier scatterometer data confirmed strong northerly winds were occurring overnight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will quickly diminish this morning. A strong ridge building east of the Sierra Madre mountains behind a cold front will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late Fri night, then increase to gale force by early Sat morning. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft, with 8 ft seas extending well downstream of the Gulf. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by late Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle winds will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador for the next several days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the weekend and into early next week. Long period SW swell will continue impacting the region through the weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge prevails across the northern waters north of 20N west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are noted in 05 UTC scatterometer data north of 25N west of 132W. A nearby altimeter pass indicated seas were still 8-9 ft over the far NW forecast waters in mixed swell and NE wind waves. High pressure centered well north of the region will remain nearly stationary and gradually weaken through Fri, allowing trade winds to diminish and seas to subside through late week. Southerly swell within the far southern waters may briefly produce seas to 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 100W this morning. A surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, could produce another area of 8 ft seas roughly from 06N to 09N between 96W and 104W on Fri. This area of 8 ft seas will propagate northeastward while subsiding by Fri night. $$ Reinhart