000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240222 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 023 UTC Thu Oct 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 06N, moving west around 10-15 kt. This wave is helping to induce some convective activity over the Bay of Campeche. The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W from 05N to 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis from 13N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N94W to 09N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N117W to 11N129W. The ITCZ begins near 11N129W and continues to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 08N between 83W and 85W to the coast of Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 97W and 99W, from 08N to 10N between 101W and 103W, near 08N109W, and from 10N to 12N between 118W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge west of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure is expected to build over the Great Basin Thu into Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas mainly over the northern part of the gulf. Fresh to strong NW-N winds of 20-30 kt and building seas of 8-9 ft are forecast N of 29.5N Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong winds in the 20-25 kt range and seas to 8 ft will also affect the central gulf on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. This gap wind event is expected to end early on Thu. A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late Fri night, increasing to gale force by early Sat morning. Winds are expected to peak 35-40 kt, with seas building to up to 12 or 13 ft with this event. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun morning. Of note: Climatology indicates that on average 11.9 gale-force events and 6.3 storm-force events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold season. About 84 percent of these events occur between November and March, with the largest number of gale-foce events occuring in December. Storm-force events are most frequent in January. Gale-force events have occured as early as September and as late as May. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while mainly gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend. A set of long period SW swell will reach the area on Fri, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge prevails across the northern waters N of 20N W of 120W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 28N W of 130W. Earlier altimeter passes and a ship observation suggest seas are likely still 7-10 ft in mixed swell and NE wind waves. High pressure centered well north of the region will remain nearly stationary and gradually weaken through Thu, allowing these winds to diminish and seas to subside through late week. Southerly swell currently moving into the far southern waters is resulting in a brief period of 8 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W. A surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, could produce another area of 8 ft seas from 03N to 07N between 98W and 108W on Thu. This area of 8 ft seas will propagate northeastward while subsiding to less than 8 ft by Fri night. $$ GR