000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1920 UTC Wed Oct 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 06N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 94W and 98W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 05N to 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis from 12N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N94W to 08N103W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N117W to 10N130W. The ITCZ begins near 10N130W and continues to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N E of 84W, from 08N to 11N between 98W and 103W, and from 10N to 14N between 115W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge west of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure is expected to build over the Great Basin Thu into Fri, and the associated pressure gradient will strengthen the winds over the northern and central Gulf to fresh to strong with seas to 8 or 9 ft N of 29N. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. This gap wind event is expected to end early on Thu. A stronger gap wind event is forecast to start late Fri night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are likely early on Sat through Sat night as a strong north-south pressure gradient sets up across the region. Seas are expected to build to 12-13 ft with this event on Sat. Afterwards, winds and seas will gradually diminish through Sun. Another gap wind event could be possible by late Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador while mainly gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will prevail across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend. A set of long period SW swell will reach the area on Fri, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge prevails across the northern waters N of 20N W of 120W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 28N W of 130W. Earlier altimeter passes and recent model guidance suggest seas are likely still 7-10 ft in mixed swell and NE wind waves. High pressure centered well north of the region will remain nearly stationary and gradually weaken through Thu, allowing these winds to diminish and seas to subside through late week. Southerly swell moving into the far southern waters today may result in a brief period of 8 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W. A surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, could produce another area of 8 ft seas from 03N to 07N between 100W and 107W on Thu. This area of 8 ft seas will propagate northeastward while subsiding to less than 8 ft by Fri night. $$ GR