000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 06N, moving 
west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 15N between 90W and 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 05N to 18N, moving 
west around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated 
with it. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 11N90W to 
10N100W to 11N105W to 12N118W to 10N128W. The ITCZ begins near 
10N128W and continues to 10N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 04N to 08N E of 83W, from 07N to 10N between 
99W and 113W, and from 10N to 15N between 115W and 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging west of Baja California will continue to support 
a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft 
range.

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds along the gulf are 
expected to prevail through Thu. Strong high pressure is 
expected to build over the Great Basin Thu into Fri, and the 
associated pressure gradient will strengthen the winds over the 
northern and central Gulf to fresh to strong with seas to 8 ft N 
of 29N. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly gap 
winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas in 
the 8-9 ft range. This gap wind event is expected to end early 
on Thu. A stronger gap wind event is forecast to start late Fri 
night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of 
Mexico. Gale conditions are likely early on Sat through Sat 
night as a strong north-south pressure gradient sets up across 
the region. Seas are expected to build to 12-13 ft with this 
event on Sat. Afterwards, winds and seas will gradually diminish 
through Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW winds with 4-6 ft seas prevail south of the
monsoon trough across the offshore waters of Central America,
Colombia, and Ecuador. Little change is expected through the
weekend. A set of long period SW swell will move northward into
the region today, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft
across the offshore waters. Looking ahead, seas will build to 8 
ft in mixed swell this weekend well offshore of Guatemala and El
Salvador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters N of 
20N W of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of 25N W of 125W 
with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NE swell. Farther south, between the 
ridge and the ITCZ, moderate NE to E winds dominate the region 
with seas to 9 ft W of 137W. The ridge, centered well north of 
the region, will remain nearly stationary and gradually weaken 
through Thu, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside in 
the northern waters.

Mixed, SW and NW swell is resulting in 8 ft seas south of the 
Equator and west of 104W. Seas in this region are expected to 
subside by Thu. A surge in the monsoon flow, combined with 
southerly swell, could produce another area of 8 ft seas from 
02N to 07N between 100W and 107W Thu night.

$$
Ramos