000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230220 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 UTC Wed Oct 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 06N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. A cluster of moderate convection is on the E side of the wave axis from 11N to 12.5N between 86.5W and 88W. This wave is helping to induce some convective activity over Guatemala and SE Mexico. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W north of 05N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N100W to 12N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is on either side of the ITCZ axis from 08N to 11N W of 132W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, from 08N to 11N between 95W and 98W, and from 10N to 12N between 120W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in NW swell, but are forecast to subside to 4 to 6 ft on Wed. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds NW to N winds will continue over the Gulf of California through Wed. Winds will begin to increase to 15-20 kt across the northern part of the Gulf on Thu, and across the central Gulf on Fri. Winds will further increase to 20-25 kt across the northern Gulf Thu night and Fri as a high pressure settles across the Great Basin. Seas are forecast to build to 7 or 8 ft with the strongest winds on Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, increasing to near gale force by Wed morning, with building seas to 8 to 9 ft downstream of the Gulf to about 14N. This gap wind event is expected to end by early Thu morning. A stronger gap wind event is forecast to start late Fri night into Sat. Gale conditions are possible with this event through Sat night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas are forecast to build up to 14 or 15 ft on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, as well as between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with variable light to gentle winds. South to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough are expected to increase to moderate starting Wed and continuing through the weekend. Otherwise, a set of long period SW swell will move northward into the region on Wed, with seas briefly building to 8 ft S of the Equator. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb located well N of area near 38N135W extends a ridge across the forecast waters, particularly N of 18N W of 110W. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NE winds across the region N of 27N between 128W and 134W, where seas are in the 8-9 ft range based on altimeter data. Similar wind speeds are also noted just N of the ITCZ axis and W of 132W. Little change is expected in these marine conditions as the high pressure center will remain nearly stationary over the next 24-48 hours. Seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in NW swell, are noted across much of the waters W of 110W. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft W of 110W by Thu, with a new area of 8 ft seas developing S of the monsoon trough roughly between 95W and 105W. $$ GR