000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222117
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1911 UTC Tue Oct 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 06N, moving 
west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of
11N between 86W and 88W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W north of 05N, moving 
west around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with 
the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 15N100W to 
11N115W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is on either side
of the ITCZ axis from 08N to 11N W of 132W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 12N between 92W and 97W, from 10N to
12N between 116W and 120W, and from 08N to 11N between 125W and
132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja
California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are in
the 5 to 7 ft range in NW swell, but are forecast to subside to 
4 to 6 ft on Wed. 

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds NW to N winds will
continue over the Gulf of California through Wed. Winds will
begin to increase to 15-20 kt across the northern part of the
Gulf on Thu, and across the central Gulf on Fri. Winds will 
further increase to 20-25 kt across the northern Gulf Thu night 
and Fri as a high pressure settles across the Great Basin. Seas 
are forecast to build to 7 or 8 ft with the strongest winds. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, increasing to 
near gale force by Wed morning, with building seas to 8 to 9 ft 
downstream of the Gulf to about 14N. This gap wind event is 
expected to end by early Thu morning. A stronger gap wind event 
is forecast to start late Fri night into Sat. Gale conditions 
are possible with this event Sat and Sat night as a strong cold 
front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of Central 
America, as well as between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
along with variable light to gentle winds. South to southwest 
winds south of the monsoon trough are expected to increase to 
moderate starting Wed and continuing through the weekend. 

Otherwise, a set of long period SW swell will move northward 
into the region on Wed, with seas briefly building to 8 ft S of
the Equator.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1033 mb located well N of area near 38N135W 
extends a ridge across the forecast waters, particularly N of 
18N W of 110W. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh
to locally strong NE winds across the region N of 27N between 
128W and 134W, where seas are in the 8-9 ft range based on 
altimeter data. Similar wind speeds are also noted just N of the
ITCZ axis and W of 132W. Little change is expected in these 
marine conditions as the high pressure center will remain nearly
stationary over the next 24-48 hours. 

Seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in NW swell, are noted across much 
of the waters W of 110W. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft W
of 110W by Thu, with a new area of 8 ft seas developing S of the
monsoon trough roughly between 95W and 105W. 

$$
GR