000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0920 UTC Tue Oct 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W south of 17N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N84W to 10N89W to 15N97W to 11N110W to low pressure near 11N126W to 09N130W. The ITCZ begins near 09N130W and continues to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 13N between 120W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N east of 80W, within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 86W and 93W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 130W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are likely ongoing over the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across much of the offshore waters per overnight scatterometer data. NW swell will gradually decay off the coast of Baja California through this morning. Strong northerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, increasing to near gale force Wed morning as seas build to 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf. Later this week, strong high pressure is expected to build behind a cold front over the western United States. This will support another round of strong NW winds over the northern and central Gulf of California on Fri. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late Fri night through the weekend with possible gale force winds on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent altimeter data shows 4-6 ft seas across the offshore waters south of Panama and Costa Rica, as well as between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle SW to W winds prevail over these waters south of the monsoon trough. Moderate SW winds will prevail across much of the region through this week and into the upcoming weekend. A set of long period SW swell will move northward into the region on Wed, but wave heights are expected to remain less than 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Octave continues to meander along the monsoon trough near 11N126W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NW semicircle and from 10N to 13N between 120W and 126W. Fresh winds are noted in overnight scatterometer data near the low center, and these winds will likely persist for the next couple days until the system opens up into a trough. A broad region of 7-10 ft seas in NW swell persists across much of the waters north of a line from 18N114W to 08N140W based on overnight altimeter data. The swell will continue decaying through tonight, although 8-9 ft seas will linger across the northern waters through Wed in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Moderate to fresh NE winds continue west of 125W between the monsoon trough and a high pressure ridge across the northern waters. Little change is expected over the next couple days. $$ Reinhart