799 
AXPZ20 KNHC 212044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2028 UTC Mon Oct 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W N of 06N, moving west 
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
15N between 92W and 99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 14N95W to 10N115W to
low pressure near 11N125W 1010 mb to 08N132W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 83W to 91W and from 08N to
13N between 115W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Large NW swell will continue impacting the Baja California 
offshore waters through early Tue. Strong northerly gap winds 
are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night, 
increasing to near gale force Wed morning and prevailing through 
Wed evening. The next gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
is expected late Fri night and continuing through the weekend 
with possible gale force winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally 
strong NW to N winds are expected tonight and Fri over the 
northern Gulf of California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region 
through this week. SW swell across the area will continue to
subside tonight. Wave heights in the 6 to 8 ft range will 
decrease over the region to 5 to 6 ft by Tue night, and 4 to 6 
ft by Wed night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Octave continues to meander near 11N125W.
Scattered moderate convection in association with the remnant low
is oriented along the monsoon trough, mainly from 09N to 12N
between 120W and 130W. Generally moderate to fresh winds will 
persist near the low center for the next couple days, until the 
system opens up into a trough. 

Another low pressure has moved west of the area near 09N141W.
Scattered moderate convection is located between 07N and 13N W of
136W. This low will continue moving away from the area through
mid-week.

Although NW swell will continue to decay through Tue, daytime
altimeter passes indicate wave heights of 8 ft to 10 ft across
much of the waters N of 12N and W of 115W. By Tue night, most 
areas should have seas subsiding to less than 8 ft. Elsewhere, a
high pressure ridge prevails across the waters north of 20N. 
Fresh NE winds prevail between the ridge and the monsoon trough 
west of 120W. Little change is expected over the next couple 
days.

$$
KONARIK