000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure is near 09N139W or more than 1000 miles east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This well-defined low pressure system is supporting numerous moderate to strong from 06N to 13N W of 135W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph. The low is expected to move westward and pass west of 140W by today, with a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W N of 06N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 15N between 92W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 14N95W to 13N110W to 10N120W to low pressure near 11N125W 1010 mb to 08N132W to low pressure near 09N139W 1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 83W and 92W, and from 09N to 12N between 123W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Large NW swell will continue impacting the Baja California offshore waters through early Tue. Strong northerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night, increasing to near gale force Wed morning and prevailing through Wed evening. The next gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected late Fri night and continuing through the weekend with possible gale force winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are expected today and Fri over the northern Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region through this week. SW swell across the area will subside today. Wave heights in the 6 to 8 ft range will decrease over the region to 5 to 6 ft by Tuesday night, and 4 to 6 ft by midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Octave continues to meander near 11N125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm S semicircle of the low. Generally moderate to fresh winds will persist near the low center for the next couple days, until the system opens up into a trough. Another low pressure is centered near 09N139W. See the Special Features section for further details. Latest altimeter passes indicate wave heights remain 8 ft to 11 ft in NW swell across much of the waters north of 06N and west of 110W. This swell will gradually decay, with seas subsiding below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge prevails across the waters north of 20N. Fresh NE winds prevail between the ridge and the monsoon trough west of 120W. Little change is expected over the next couple days. $$ NR