000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210845
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0830 UTC Mon Oct 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 03N, moving west 
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 91W and 97W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 15N100W to low pres
near 11N126W to low pres near 09N139W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N 
to 07N E of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
was noted within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 85W and 
87W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 11N 
between 101W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 
from 08N to 10N between 110W and 128W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 11N between 
137W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Large NW swell will continue impacting the Baja California 
offshore waters today, then subside through the middle of the 
week. Strong northerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late Tue night and Wed. Another round of strong NW to
N winds is expected over the northern Gulf of California late 
Thu into Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region 
through this week. SW swell across the area will start to subside
today. Wave heights in the 6 to 8 ft range will decrease over 
the region to 5 to 6 ft by Tuesday night, and 4 to 6 ft by 
midweek. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Octave continues to meander near 11N126W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm w quadrant of
the low. Generally fresh to occasionally strong winds will 
persist near the low center for the next couple days, until the 
system opens up into a trough. 

Another low pressure is centered near 09N139W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong from 08N to 11N between 137W and 140W. 
The low is expected to move westward and pass west of 140W by 
today, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation.

Overnight altimeter passes indicate wave heights remain 8 ft or 
greater in NW swell across much of the waters north of 08N and 
west of 105W. This swell will gradually decay, with seas 
subsiding below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue. Elsewhere,
a high pressure ridge prevails across the waters north of 20N. 
Fresh NE winds prevail between the ridge and the monsoon trough 
west of 125W. Little change is expected over the next couple 
days.

$$
AL