000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0235 UTC Mon Oct 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Priscilla are centered near 20.0N 104.7W at 21/0300 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The remnants of Priscilla are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwestern Mexico through Tue night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. This is the last NHC advisory issued on Priscilla. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W south of 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 90W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 11N90W, then resumes from 14N107W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 84W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the monsoon trough west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more information on the remnants of Priscilla. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the Baja California Norte offshore waters through tonight. Earlier 21 UTC altimeter data showed 8-11 ft seas across the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Large NW swell will continue impacting the area through Mon, then subside through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail across the northern and central Gulf of California tonight through Tue night. Strong northerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night and Wed as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Another round of strong NW to N winds is expected over the northern Gulf of California late Thu into Fri as strong high pressure builds over the western United States. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region through this week. Moderate to locally fresh SW flow, combined with SW swell, will maintain seas to 8 ft south of Panama and Costa Rica tonight. Wave heights will subside early this week as offshore wind speeds diminish and swell decays over the region. Another set of long period SW swell will move northward into the area by the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Octave remains centered near 11N126W this evening. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 45 nm north semicircle. Generally fresh to occasionally strong winds will persist near the low center for the next couple days, until the system opens up into a trough. Little movement is expected through Mon, but the low could begin drifting NE by Tue. Another low pressure is centered near 09N138.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north semicircle of the low, where fresh to locally strong winds are likely ongoing. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable. The low is expected to move westward and pass west of 140W by early Mon. Recent altimeter passes confirm that wave heights remain 8 ft or greater in NW swell across much of the waters north of 08N and west of 110W. This swell will gradually decay early this week, and seas will subside below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge prevails across the waters north of 15N. Fresh NE winds prevail between the ridge and the monsoon trough west of 125W. Little change is expected over the next couple days. $$ Reinhart