000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2115 UTC Sun Oct 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Priscilla is centered inland near 19.1N 104.0W at 20/2100 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Priscilla made landfall east of Manzanillo, Mexico earlier this afternoon. A northward motion is forecast to continue through tonight until Priscilla dissipates inland over southwestern Mexico. Priscilla and its remnants are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W south of 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 88W and 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 09N83W to 11N91W, then resumes from 14N106W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N126W to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N138W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 12N between 92W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 06N to 08N between 80W and 83W, within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 106W and 118W, and within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 132W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Priscilla. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW winds over the outer Baja California Norte offshore waters. These moderate to fresh winds will persist through tonight. Large NW swell will continue impacting the Baja California offshore waters through Mon, then subside through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail across the northern and central Gulf of California tonight through Tue night. Strong northerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night and Wed as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Another round of strong NW to N winds is expected over the northern Gulf of California late Thu into Fri as strong high pressure builds over the western United States. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region through this week. Moderate to locally fresh SW flow, combined with SW swell, will maintain seas to 8 ft south of Panama and Costa Rica through late tonight. Wave heights will subside early this week as offshore wind speeds diminish and swell decays over the region. Looking ahead, another set of long period SW swell will move northward into the area by the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Octave remains centered near 11N126W this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north semicircle. Generally fresh to occasionally strong winds will persist near the low center for the next several days, unless the system opens up into a trough. Little movement is expected through Mon, but the low could begin drifting NE by Tue. Another low pressure is centered near 09N138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north semicircle of the low, where fresh to locally strong winds are likely ongoing. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. Any development of this low should be slow to occur while this system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 kt during the next couple of days. This system is expected to move west of 140W by tonight or early Monday. Recent altimeter data confirms that wave heights remain 8 ft or greater in NW swell across much of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W. This swell will gradually decay early this week, and seas will subside below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge prevails across the waters north of 15N. Fresh NE winds were noted in earlier scatterometer data between the ridge and the monsoon trough. Little change is expected over the next couple days. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. $$ Reinhart