000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200902 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Sun Oct 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Depression 19-E is centered near 17.5N 104.0W at 20/0900 UTC moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 16N to 20N between 102W and 107W. The system may briefly intensify to tropical storm strength this afternoon before moving inland over southwest Mexico tonight. The system is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwest Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W N of 03N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 82W and 88W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to low pres near 17N104W to low pres near 11.5N126W to low pres near 10N137W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 11N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 14N between 103W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on recently upgraded Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Elsewhere, large NW to N swell will continue impacting the Baja California offshore waters through Mon. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will persist across the Baja California Norte offshore zones through Sun. Strong northerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night through Wed. Strong NW to N winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California late Thu and Thu night as strong high pressure builds over the western United States. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh SW flow, combined with SW swell, will maintain seas to 8 ft south of Panama and Costa Rica through late tonight. Wave heights will subside early next week as offshore wind speeds diminish and swell decays over the region. Looking ahead, another set of long period SW swell will move northward into the area by the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Octave is centered near 11.5N126W. No significant convection is associated to this low. overnight scatterometer pass indicated fresh winds in the northern quadrant of the low. The low is expected to meander in the same general location the next several days. Another low pressure is centered near 10N137W embedded within the monsoon trough. Overnight scatterometer pass indicated fresh to locally strong winds in the northern semicircle of the low, with peak seas likely around 10 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated to this low is noted from 09N to 12N between 134W and 138W. Any development of this system should be slow while the it drifts westward during the next few days. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin late tonight. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. A large set of NW swell continues spreading across the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. Earlier altimeter data revealed 12 ft seas extend as far southward as 26N121W. The swell will gradually decay early next week, and seas will subside below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. fresh to locally strong winds were noted 20N to 22N between 131W and 137W, and N of 28N between 121W and 124W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over the waters north of 18N and west of 125W. Little change is expected over the next couple days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. $$ AL