000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0235 UTC Sat Oct 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 11.5N 126.6W at 19/0300 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm NW quadrant of Octave. The tropical storm is forecast to meander for the next several days, and little net movement is anticipated. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Octave is forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W south of 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 84W and 87W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N85W to 15N93W to 15N110W to 10N123W, then resumes west of T.S. Octave from 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 101W and 108W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A set of large NW to N swell propagating across the Baja California offshore waters will spread southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night. Wave heights are likely 12-13 ft west of Guadalupe Island. These large seas will prevail through Sun as fresh to strong NW to N winds continue across the Baja California Norte offshore waters this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop in the northern and central Gulf of California late Sun night and continue through Tue night. Farther south, weak low pressure persists over the waters south of Cabo Corrientes near 19N105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm NE semicircle of the low. This feature is expected to drift SE and dissipate later this weekend. Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal flow will continue over the offshore waters roughly from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region through Sat, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, strong northerly winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning late Tue night and continue through Wed as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front. Associated seas will likely build to 8 ft just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally, moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region through the middle of next week. Fresh SW flow will develop Sat night between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands and persist through Sun, with seas building to 8 ft. Then, wave heights will subside early next week as offshore wind speeds diminish. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more details about Tropical Storm Octave. A large set of NW swell continues propagating across the northern waters tonight. Recent altimeter data shows a broad area of 8-12 ft seas north of 15N along 137W/138W, and seas 8 ft or greater are likely found north of a line from 28N115W to 14N140W. This swell will continue propagating southeastward through the weekend. Expect seas 8 ft or greater north of 10N and west of 110W by Sun, with fresh to strong N winds maintaining 12 ft seas north of 27N between 119W and 123W. This swell will gradually decay early next week, and seas will subside below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extends across the waters mainly north of 20N. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with fresh monsoon flow noted between 105W and 117W. $$ Reinhart